Quarterly INsync Chit Chat July 2026
We Won! [by David Cox]
For the past year and half, I’ve been a member of the Canadian Poolplayers Association (CPA) and play in Thursday night 8-ball & 9-ball leagues. I grew up with a pool table in our basement and loved to play. After an almost 28-year hiatus, I started up again and had never been in a league but it’s a ton of fun! Well last fall, we won our leagues and that meant we’d earned a spot in the regional tournament (for both 8/9-ball!). And would you believe it, we won the 9-ball regional and are now set to head to Las Vegas for the APA World Pool Championships in August!
Eloise (11) has been playing soccer this summer on Mondays and it really is something that I look forward to. Sure, sitting in the hot sun can be sweltering(!), but seeing the girls run around and learn to play as a team makes it all worth it! We’ve also been golfing! Emry (15) got a golf membership this year and that’s meant more tee-times and dad (that’d be me) tends to join on Wednesday evening for 9-holes after work. I’ve played with some of you who know that golf (definitely!) isn’t my game, but it’s fun nonetheless and seeing Emry chip in for his first birdie a couple of weeks ago was pretty exciting! Eloise and I have also been regularly playing at a casual pitch & putt course at Doon Valley!
News – Some That You’ve Heard, Most That You Haven’t - [by David Cox]
Carney announced bailout of B.C. developers using Canadian taxpayer monies [as you might guess I believe there are better priorities for taxpayer money to be spent on than developers afraid to take a loss]. Canada is in a recession. Canada announces the launch of a new sovereign wealth fund (but unlike the rest of them in the world that use profits/surpluses & capital to fund it, Canada will instead borrow money to fund it. Carney launches “All AI for Canada AI” – AI based on Canadian values (hmmm)… SpaceX stock jumps after record IPO. U.S. inflation +4.2% y/y in May, the highest in 3-years and Canadian headline inflation rose +3.2% y/y ahead of expectations. European Central Bank raised rates by 25 bps to ~2.25%, the first hike in three years while the Bank of Japan hiked to 1% (highest rate since 1995).
Book Corner [by David Cox]
Eloise & I were at the Waterloo public library and I randomly(?) searched “work/life balance” and found this book by Matthew Kelly. I read it and it was so good, I ordered my own copy so I can mark it up as I like to do! Not only that, I ordered two of his other books!
Being a creature of routine, a person who likes to form habits and regularly work on bettering oneself, I really enjoyed this book. Breaking down my day-to-day and figuring out the few simple core habits that help to keep us healthy and happy and moving forward is important. As someone with way too many to-do lists who operates in a fast-paced environment and blinks as another day ends too quickly, I loved it!
What’s important to you? Family? Work? Health? Which of the things that are important to you are more important than the next thing? Going through an exercise to dig in and drill down helps to establish your those core habits, which lead to change and overall satisfaction in succeeding at our endeavors, whether it be as a spouse, a friend, a colleague or a parent! Let me know if you read the book! I already read his next book “The Dream Catcher” and loved it too!
Wellness Wins! - [by Avery Kelly]
For many, summertime becomes the season of patios, sunsets and weekends on the dock. I can say that I try my best to stick with my workout routine, but that doesn’t always go to plan... To stay motivated, and on course with my goals, I decided to register for two 10-kilometer races (6.2 miles for those of you outside Canada!) this summer.
To start, I would definitely not consider myself a runner whatsoever. In fact, you can usually only catch me running if I am being chased… However, signing up, and committing yourself to an event in the future creates accountability and encourages you to prepare, train and stay focused - regardless of how enticing the summer activities may be.
After participating in the Toronto Marathon 10k race in May, I can confidently say that not only setting a goal (finishing in < 55 mins), but participating alongside a team, truly motivated me to train, and commit to the schedule I had created for myself. Did I enjoy running on rainy April days? Absolutely not. However, I did love the sense of accomplishment I felt when crossing the finish line (In our matching pink outfits nonetheless).
Personal well-being and health are much more than how fast you can run or how much weight you can lose. They’re about finding ways to stay motivated and encourage yourself and those around you to live active, healthy lifestyles.
I encourage anyone reading to find an approach that helps you stay committed to your health and wellness goals, whether that’s signing up for an event, training for a race, joining a recreational sports league, or simply exercising with a group of friends of family members. Having something to work towards can provide accountability, build motivation, and help you stay consistent, even on those sunny beautiful dock days!
As for me, I’ll need to reignite that motivation soon, and training really should start up again for my next race in Canmore this September…
What Are We Buying? Selling? Holding… [by David Cox]
Most of our clients bought Bitcoin on November 30th, 2022 as I’ve discussed before (and still hold it!). In early 2023, clients also broadly were a buyer of a crypto ETF called Bitwise Crypto Innovators ($BITQ). It did really well (although it sure was & is volatile!). If you look at the daily chart (below), I’ve highlighted all the corrections that we went through as we effectively bought and held the ETF. Why did we hold through those corrections?
Well, the bigger picture chart (weekly/monthly) looked to have turned higher in early to mid-2023 and I’ve been trying to get better at patiently milking a trend (so to speak!) for what it’s worth. At times, the odd client would mention how far it seemed to have fallen as it pulled back and while true, each time the correction ended the ETF went on to make new highs for the move… the ETF has a variety of exposure to the crypto industry & the miners within it and interestingly enough, $BITQ did a lot better than Bitcoin in the past 9-months since Bitcoin reached a peak and has since fallen ~-50% (our clients are still holdings with their sizeable gains from late ’22).
But $BITQ? We sold in the red circle and took all our profits, for all clients with no more holdings remaining. Most clients were up 200-300%+ and while there are taxes due, it allows us to also control overall portfolio volatility and sell into what I thought was a respectable spot amidst the volatility and before the outperformance (vs. Bitcoin relatively) perhaps narrowed, or ended!
I believe that ALL stocks that rise eventually fall and they do so on a variety of time frames, the short, intermediate and long-term. A long-term peak cannot occur without a short-term peak happening first and so forth. We’ll see what happens, but either way, we’ve moved on this quarter.
Source: Optuma
* as at June 29th, 2026
Things We Recommend - [by Avery Kelly]
With summertime in full swing, I have been lucky enough to take some time away from the office and visit with friends and family in cottage country. For those of you located in Ontario (or nearby!), I encourage you to check out Killarney Mountain Lodge!
Tucked away on the shore of the northern Georgian Bay, Killarney Mountain Lodge truly has it all. Whether you are looking for a relaxing time by the pool, dock, or seeking more adventure with hiking trails and outdoor games, the lodge truly has it all to offer.
A highlight of my recent trip was the breakfast on the bay sailing excursion. We enjoyed a lovely breakfast while taking in the beauty of the Georgian Bay. We were shuttled off the boat for a hike with the most beautiful views and then topped it all off with a brief (and chilly!) jump in the bay.
Not only does the lodge have some of the most gorgeous views, but it has some amazing eats as well. Between the Ranch House, Curds ‘N Whey café, and the fish fry at the Channel Grill, I was well fed for the entirety of the trip.
Whether you are planning a weekend getaway, family vacation, or place to disconnect Killarney Mountain Lodge is well worth the visit!
Artificial Intelligence -> Human Wisdom? [by David Cox]
I’ll be the first to admit that I wish I could shed a few pounds from my middle, no doubt not helped any by chip consumption (full confession here!), but I’ve engaged ChatGPT on the matter and things are looking up! It can be somewhat weird to be dialoguing in a conversational manner with artificial intelligence, but it’s teaching me that perfection shouldn’t be the goal and making small changes and being open-minded to the perspective they bring is quite important! I now provide it everything I eat and drink in a day, and have been tending to put in for some credit for a run here and there and it’s been quite rewarding.
As Avery already discussed, having accountability makes goals easier to reach and while I’m certainly not going to turn from human interaction anytime soon, I’m a regular user of ChatGPT, Claude, Grok and Microsoft Co-Pilot… all at different times of my week for a variety of tasks but staying open-minded! What have you used AI for recently?
How’s the (Bigger Picture) Market? [by David Cox]
The U.S. market has had another positive quarter and rebounded smartly from the March sell-off as fears grew and new wars took shape. But the trend is the trend and the U.S. market remains our barometer for risk-taking and while there are more than a few who find reason to complain that a few big stocks are overrepresented in the index (anyone remember when Nortel was ~35-40% of the TSX?!?) or that artificial intelligence is all hype?
The good news is that we can follow price, the collective wisdom of all investors, globally, and they bought the dip (again) and the bearish divergences in ’25 were erased after the oversold conditions of last quarter. We don’t need to forecast prices. We do need to accept that if government spending continues unabated, we’ll experience inflation and inflationary assets, like stocks, benefit.
Source: Optuma
* as at June 29th, 2026
Market Summary and Trend of “All Assets” - [by David Cox]
Here’s our “all asset” list that I regularly post in a variety of different ways on “X” using the hashtag #AssetWatch. It shows the short, intermediate and long-term trend condition and is sorted by year-to-date % change. What is noticeably different at this stage, as we hit the half way point in ’2, is that emerging markets, U.S. small-caps, Canadian value and oil/commodities are at the top of the list… gold & bitcoin, which did very well in recent years are in falling mode and bonds are still languishing (though that’s not new!).
You might be surprised at the strength (or weakness!) in a given asset, but the trend is the trend and as investors, the trend is our friend as it allows us to participate as we seek grow (and maintain the purchasing power of) our investment assets. I always favour the idea of getting from the lower left to upper right in the smoothest way possible and one way to do that in your investment portfolio is to own the strongest assets…
Source: Optuma
* as at June 29th, 2026
One Uptrend, One DOWNtrend - [by David Cox]
The one thing that gets in our way as investors is ourselves! Many of us are trained to see something that is rising as something that is too late to buy into and the flipside is the idea that if something is falling, it’s cheap and must be good “value”. But trends can persist for longer than one can imagine and this quarter, let’s contrast the very strong Caterpillar ($CAT) stock against Telus ($T:TSX).
You’ve all seen that yellow farm, machinery and construction equipment and Caterpillar stocks has been in a strong uptrend for sometime, capitalizing on the strength in the economy and it’s even benefitting (so they tell me) from artificial intelligence. After all, when you build a data centre or power generation plan you need earth moving equipment and machinery!
Telus on the other hand is one of the big few telecommunication providers and as any Canadian can attest to, there are other, smaller and lesser known providers, but if you look underneath, you’ll see that it’s Rogers, Bell and Telus that dominate (and own those smaller operators!). Telus stock has been falling for about four years now and while income/dividend-oriented investors view a falling price as attractive given the higher yields, there is always the risk that they cut the dividend! In December, the announced a rate pause in the pattern of dividend increases but the stock is still falling. And if you ask me, I think we’ll see a cut in the month ahead!
Our clients prefer to hold stocks that are rising.
Getting AllINsync - Beyond the Basics (of Estate Planning) [by Kieran O’Donnell]
With the official start of summer now a couple of weeks behind us, routines have naturally shifted. Many are taking more time off, spending less time in front of screens, and making the most of longer days and warmer weather.
But while it’s easy, and important, to step away from our screens and the details that live in them, it is important to consider how digital assets may affect your estate. For most people, a growing portion of what makes up an estate today exists quietly in the background, across platforms and systems that aren’t easily visible (to an executor that might have to step in!)
The most obvious elements are financial: bank/investment accounts & insurance policies, but do you own any assets like cyptocurrency? Have any subscriptions or recurring payments? What about photos, which are a great way to capture a moment in time that could either remind you of a great memory or bring back forgotten ones. Your executor(s) should know how to access these accounts and these photos! That means that login info is saved accordingly and included as part of your estate plan.
A helpful starting point doesn’t need to be complicated. Taking a bit of time to create a simple list of key accounts, important information and where things are stored can go a long way. This doesn’t have to include every detail, just enough to provide direction. Letting a trusted person know that this information exists and where to find it can make a meaningful difference.
AllINsync: How Are We Exposed? [by David Cox]
Sure, you can tell me that the falling Canadian dollar in the past couple of months is because Canada is in a recession. I’ll just tell you it’s pretty much back to where it was at the end of ’25 and it’s higher than it was when the tarrifs become front-page headlines. Either way, the outperformance of Canadian stocks vs. U.S. stocks is still largely a blip (still at the squinting stage) and it’s no surprise that as we’ve dealt with the volatilty in recent months, we’ve pushed into more U.S. equities again although do have a healthy ~16.7% position in non-North American equities.
Either way, we remain committed to the equity markets that are trending upwards and while there will continue to be bouts of volatility (and a bear market some day in the months/years ahead), we’ll take the trend over the narrative every day and will keep preferring to own stocks that are demonstrating the ability to outperform the broader markets. So much going on in technology these days, and at this point I suspect all of you have read and heard about artificial intelligence and semiconductors, if only from me at the least! Those of you that have exposure to our #AllINsync (RJI237) pool, will receive more details and strategic insights in the upcoming quaterly strategic review. Suffice to say that things have been doing very well!
#AllINsync Geographic Allocation
Chart of the Month - [by David Cox]
Canada is in recession! Well, wait a second you’re thinking, didn’t I read a “technical recession”? What’s that I asked as I read the same. Oh I see, it’s technically a recession cause it meets the definition of a recession (two quarters of falling economic (GDP) growth) but they’re calling it technical so it doesn’t spook everyone into being scared to spend money, hire or buy things like houses. But facts are facts. The issue I always I have with these narratives is that in our minds, we think that’s supposed to be mean something. We (wrongfully) assume it means stocks are going to plummet and some even think it demands immediate changes to our investment portfolios. Not so fast I say!
Like in the U.K. and Germany in recent years, recessions may spook the headline watchers, but stocks/equities and risk-assets in general rose in response… while I’m admittedly not most ecstatic about the non-diverse nature of the Canadian market, which has been significantly driven by Canadian bank stocks given their seemingly unusually lower yield and risk premium (over GICs) it is what it is. And it doesn’t mean everything has to turn sour. Below, when we look at the weekly chart of the S&P/TSX Composite ($TSX) and we can see a breakout in early ’25 in response to the tariffs (which were the narrative that scared everyone last year).
Social Media and Our Website - [by David Cox]
Do you follow me on “X” (formerly Twitter)? I can be spotted @DavidCoxRJ and regularly post charts and market context if you’re interested! I sometimes run polls, I highlight charts, conduct trade reviews and have fun while I’m at it! And yes, I “showed my age” in the table below, how many have you used?!?
Upcoming Dates, Seminars, and Announcements - [by David Cox]
SUMMER TIME!
What: “Canadian Bitcoin Conference”
Where: Toronto, ON
When: October 2nd, 2026
Who: This will be my third time in attendance and it’s been a great event each year!
What: “International Federation of Technical Analysts”
Where: London, UK
When: October 9-10th, 2026
Who: I’ll be there to learn what I can, network with some old friends and make some new ones!
I wish you all a lovely summer and time with your family and friends! It was a long winter in parts of Ontario, so please take the time to enjoy what summer has to offer!
Sincerely,
David Cox, CFA, CMT, FMA, FCSI, BMath
Senior Portfolio Manager, Wealth Advisor
Raymond James Ltd.
Phone: 519.883.6031
Unit 1 – 595 Parkside Drive | Waterloo, ON | N2L 0C7
david.cox@raymondjames.ca
www.financiallyinsync.com 
@DavidCoxRJ